2nd of February 2020
Good Day to you all and welcome to the morning walk! This is episode 5 recorded on the 2nd of February 2020. I am recording 9207 kms east south-east of Mt Everest . It is currently 10.25 am, the morning is slightly humid at 42 % and the temperature is currently 32 degrees.
The price of Gold and Silver have remained for the weekend as the markets are closed. Gold is currently sitting at $1591.10 an ounce while silver is currently sitting at $18.12 an ounce.
Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash have both seen positive value growth over the weekend. Bitcoin currently sits at $9308.05 while Bitcoin Cash sits at $380.29.
The American Markets remain where they were left at Friday’s Close. The Dow Jones was down 2.09 % while the S and P was down 1.77 %. Apple took a beating losing 4.43 % value leading up to the close of the markets. Apple has since closed all stores in China with the exception of their online store to help reduce the spread of the Coronavirus.
On to other news.
Brexit has finally happened. As of the 1st of February 2020 the United Kingdom has officially left the European Union and has now entered into the transition period. This transition period will take 11 months and will be completed by the 31st of December 2020. During this period The UK will continue to meet the requirements of the European Union and slowly reveal plans to stop a hard Brexit from occurring. A hard Brexit could result in shocks to the European and British Markets but it could also have a major impact on supply lines in and out of the country. Everything that can be done will be done to reduce the risk of a hard Brexit from happening. Many questions need to be answered in the next 11 months. One such question is quite simple. Will passports need to be used in order to enter and exit the United Kingdom? What about the transport of goods. It has been said that any interruption or slowing of the supply lines into the United Kingdom could result in food shortages. There is the problem of border disputes with Ireland and the issue of Scotland wishing to remain apart of the European Union. Come 2021 all these issues will need to be solved, or perhaps, just has Brexit took forever to complete, so will all the minor details of the actual transition.
Now to the daily Coronavirus update.
Over the next week you may start to hear the terms R Naught being used frequently in the news. R Naught is a scale used to measure how contagious a virus is. The way it works is quite simple. To find the R Naught of a virus simply take the previous number of confirmed cases and note this down. Now find the number of new cases and divide this into the number of old cases. This gives you the R Naught of the Virus. It is best to work with individual cases. For example Tom has the virus. This has been confirmed. It is also confirmed that 7 other people Tom was around has caught the virus. The incubation period of the virus is seven days and it is has also been proven to be contagious for the same period of time. It is proven that Tom made contact with each of these people over the seven days it was contagious. This shows that from one person seven other people were infected. Now simply take the old infection number of one and divide seven into it. This gives you the R Naught value of 7. What is horrifying to think is this value is exponential. Of the 7 people who were infected each will pass it onto another 7 people. So from 7 people you suddenly have 49 cases. Now it must be understood that the R Naught value is dependent on an infinite number a variables. Some of these variables include population density and culture just to name a few. For example in Australia it is common for people to go to work while they have the flu. Because of this work culture these people are spreading the virus to others simply by being an Australian working class hero and going to work. Now this whole scenario is fictionalised, there is no Tom and he did not give the virus to seven people he happen to come into contact with but it is a good example of how viruses spread and how the R Naught value works. The true R Naught value of Coronavirus is yet to be determined but there is unconfirmed speculation that its value may be as high as 4. To put this into perspective Ebola had a confirmed R Naught value of 2 while measles has a confirmed value of 18. These values hint at how contagious the viruses are but it’s the mortality rate that really puts the situation in perspective. If we were to apply today’s mortality of coronavirus to Toms example then the rate of mortality would be 30 % , that is to say that two out of the seven people would die from the infection.
As at the time of writing the Coronavirus infection rate was sitting at over 11953 cases. The death rate was at 304. Using the mainstream media’s coronavirus mortality algorithm this would indicate a 2.54 % death rate. Using the more realistic algorithm based on Saturday the 25th of January’s infection rate the mortality value is 23%. This is a significant decrease on yesterday’s mortality rate showing that the rate of death was possibly decreasing. This is of course positive news indicating that as the virus spreads more people are being treated correctly. Positive identification of the virus is clearly playing a significant role in reducing the spread of the infection. Tomorrow’s results will help to determine if this is indeed the case.
In the mean time airlines around the globe are cancelling flights in and out of mainland China. The following airlines have all bowed out until as stated or until further notice. Vietnam Airlines, Qatar Airways, Delta Airlines (until April 30), American Airlines (until March 27), Air France (until Feb. 9), British Airways, Air Seoul, Egyptair, Lion Air, Lufthansa, Swiss Airlines and Austrian Airlines (until end February), Kenya Airways, RwandAir (till further notice), Vietjet (effective Feb. 1), all Russian airlines (except Aeroflot).
China is gradually being isolated from the rest of the globe. With so much going on it is good to stay afoot of the news. This is why we do the morning walk.
https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number
TECOMOGAMIC 